Membership, which includes a host of perks, including an ad-free website, tickets to marquee events like Summerfest, the Wisconsin State Fair and the Florentine Opera, a better photo browser and access to members-only, behind-the-scenes tours, starts at $9/month. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. 56% of independent voters in Wisconsin disapproved of Johnsons job performance up 14 percentage points since late 2020. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos, and the Trump-inspired GOP. A. Combining the four surveys that Marquette has done over the past nine months, 35% of registered voters view Johnson favorably and 44% view him unfavorably a net rating of minus 9. But what they missed was that she could create a sincere connection with those working-class voters in rural areas and in Democratic-rich Dane [County] and Milwaukee.. Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Accordingly, the floor is 40%. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden's low approval ratings. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Johnson has also felt losses among voters from his own party. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (. Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. . Approval Ratings (130) That poll . That said, they are all in very safe states, so they shouldnt be in any danger. An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. The American Independent is the No. Tony Evers, who is down from 50% to 45%. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. Have questions? Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Ron Johnson Approval Rating. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) thinks he has done 'a really good job,' even with an approval rating of 36%. Johnsons rating has risen from plus 50 six years ago to plus 57 with Republicans; from plus 33 to plus 46 with self-identified conservatives; from plus 15 to plus 26 with born-again Protestants; and from plus 2 to plus 9 with white noncollege men. If you are an existing member, sign-in to leave a comment. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for the purposes of these calculations. . One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . The correlation between senatorial approval rating and partisan lean is 0.44; the correlation between gubernatorial approval rating and partisan lean is -0.11. They might have been in real danger of losing their seats in 2022, but thankfully for Democrats, both are retiring. A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. In Marquettes recent polling, there is now a massive 130-point partisan gap in attitudes toward Johnson: plus 57 among Republicans, minus 73 among Democrats. Perhaps the biggest news in the poll is the rise of Michels, who announced his run for governor in late April, too late to be included in the April MU p0ll which last measured the governors race. The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. What is Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Daniel Kelly's record on abortion? The polling suggests that in the past two years, Johnson has positioned himself better for the first task than the second. You must be an Urban Milwaukee member to leave a comment. Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. But its worth remembering that Lucy has held this football in front of Democrats before. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. Faircloth's loss came in a year in which the President, Democrat Bill Clinton, had an approval rating in the 60s. For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. Tommy Rife, of Cedar Bluff, Va., is charged with one count of misdemeanor assault and battery, according to Richlands Police Chief Ron Holt. Though Johnson's 37% approval rating in the poll is dismal, it is actually slightlyhigher than in other recent polling. I'm just trying to convey the truth. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, commentator and reporter since 1984, is the author of three books, and is now researching the life and career of a U.S. Chief Justice. McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. George H.W. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the . Ronald Reagan 1981-89. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. Independent Sens. Johnson has received his highest negatives ever (the share of voters who view him unfavorably) in Marquettes last four polls. Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . Another factor that could affect the vote which bodes well for Republicans is the enthusiasm factor, which typically drives the turnout and can be critical in a swing state like Wisconsin. Partisan types. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then. But PARS reveals why the handicappers arent so sure. If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. In September, among likely voters, Johnson received 49% and Barnes 48%. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. Although partisanship has been getting more important in gubernatorial races, it is not as dominant of a force in them as it is in federal elections.3. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . -36. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (just under 21,000 votes), Biden has seen his standing plummet especially in the suburban communities that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. Help assure the future of citys fastest growing publication. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2.6 points (45.4 percent to 42.8 percent). Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. The . Trump is quite unpopular here. Phil Scott has not yet announced whether he is running, but it is expected that he will, as of May 12, 2022. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,6 Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5 percent to 42.9 percent). Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. Cmon! He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year. Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. Have you been living under a rock? Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. Timmy! Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. We want to hear from you. The WOW counties have been growing less Republican, and the recent decline in Johnsons ratings in this region is striking. By this time in the 2016 election cycle, Johnsons ratings had already begun to improve, from minus 11 in the fall of 2015 to minus 4 in February of 2016 to plus 1 in March of 2016. 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . That could make it harder for Johnson to improve his standing this time around, since public opinion is firmer. One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. Bemis, a major plastics manufacturer, had appointed Howard Curler as its CEO in 1978, and during the first several years of PACUR's existence, Bemis was the business' sole client. Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. The gap between how Republicans and Democrats view him was large then, but its even larger now. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. By Eli Yokley. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. Can we marry dogs? This is ridiculous. yes, Becky. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive,Three years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote and hybrid work are as popular as ever. The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. Bush 1989-93. Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. Asked what Johnson is doing to improve his standing, spokeswoman Alexa Henning said his supporters discount mainstream media outlets and see through the lies and distortions of their false attacks. She said the senator had received strong encouragement to forgo his two-term pledge and run for re-election from Wisconsinites who share his grave concerns over the direction Democrats are taking our country.. Biden's approval rating, right now, is mired at around 42% to 43% on average. All Rights Reserved. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. After about a three-year hiatus, FiveThirtyEights Popularity Above Replacement Senator and Popularity Above Replacement Governor ratings are back! In other words, compared with a similar low point in the previous election cycle, Johnson is doing better with his best groups and worse with his worst groups. 2022 Senate Elections (51) Given the history of midterms and President Bidens negative job ratings, 2022 is expected to be a good year for Republicans. The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Last week, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) reneged on his pledge to step down after two terms and announced he would seek re-election.. Thats why, today, were unveiling a metric of a senators political standing that takes both partisanship and popularity into account. Follow him on Twitter @jeisrael. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. In the head-to-head matchups for U.S. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. The M Logo and MORNING CONSULT are registered trademarks of Morning Consult Holdings, Inc. has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. Johnson said it was not his "job is not to micromanage a private company" and that putting the jobs in a different state would actually "benefit Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Oshkosh workers. But the decline hasnt been even across groups. Johnson is quite popular today with pro-Trump voters in Wisconsin (those who view Trump positively), drawing a net rating of around plus 60 in recent years. But as Franklin notes, Johnsons growing salience for these voters could help Democratic turnout. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Free shipping for many products! Johnson breezed through the state's Republican primary election Tuesday night, NBC News projected. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. 1990 FLEER BASEBALL 501-660 YOU PICK SEE SCANS .99 UNLIMITED SHIPPING HIGH GRADE. Johnson (Republican Party) ran for re-election to the U.S. Senate to represent Wisconsin.He won in the general election on November 8, 2022.. Johnson was first elected to the Senate in 2010 when he defeated incumbent Sen. Russ . With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Nearly six years ago, national Republicans had largely written off Johnsons eventually successful re-election campaign as Morning Consult surveys showed 45 percent of Wisconsin voters approved of his job performance, 33 percent disapproved and 22 percent had no opinion. PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. Partisan Lean (5). And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. Scott and Kelly4 seem to be in the best position, especially Scott: Not only does he have more cross-party appeal than Kelly (+77 PARG), but he is also a Republican running in a good Republican year. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove.